This week highlights National Small Business Week and brings into focus the dependence of small business growth on workforce realities.
And those realities have changed over the past few years.
In the aftermath of COVID-19, economic developers and small businesses have been operating in a labor market defined by extreme tightness. Although the economic shutdown in 2020 was short lived, it had the effect of reducing the participation rate of workers as some people retired early and others stayed home to take care of family members.
Three years ago reflects the peak of the tight labor market—small businesses were competing in an environment where available workers were scarce and hiring demand was historically high. Hiring was often the primary constraint on growth.
Today, the data tell a more nuanced story in the nation.
The environment changed, but not in a way that fully relieves the pressure.
As of December 2025, the latest available data, there are approximately 1.6 small business job openings per 100 unemployed workers in the nation, down from 1.7 in 2024 and from 2.9 in 2023. Higher ratios reflect more potential work opportunities for jobseekers but more difficult hiring conditions for businesses as they compete for a smaller pool of workers. Job openings are obtained from Chmura Economics & Analytics’ JobsEQ technology platform, and small businesses are defined as firms with 11- 200 employees.
During the same time, small business job ads declined by roughly 35% from 2023.
This is a meaningful shift. Hiring conditions are no longer at crisis levels. But for many small businesses, they are still far from easy.
Recent trends show both job ads and unemployment leveling off, suggesting the labor market may be settling into a new equilibrium rather than continuing to loosen.
This creates a different kind of challenge for small businesses. Hiring may be more predictable than it was in 2022 and 2023, but it is still a limiting factor for growth in many regions.
Small business job posts in Virginia have followed a similar trend as that of the nation since 2023 but job posts for Richmond suggest a tighter labor market. As of December 2025, there are approximately 2.4 small business job openings per 100 unemployed workers in the state, down from 5.5 in 2023. Small business job ads have fallen by about 33% from 2023.
In the Richmond metropolitan area, there are approximately 4.3 small business job ads per 100 unemployed workers as of December 2025, down from 6.1 in 2023 but up from 3.6 in 2024. In contrast with the state and nation, Richmond area small business job ads have risen by roughly 5% from 2023.
Trends in wages provide additional support that the labor market is easing in the nation and in Virginia. As shown in the accompanying chart, during the height of the labor shortages, rising wages were one of the clearest signs of competition for workers. Small businesses were forced to increase compensation to remain competitive.
As median salaries for small business job ads begin to steady at a lower level, the data reflect a less aggressive hiring environment.
In the Richmond metro area where the labor market is tighter, wages offered by small businesses in job ads have accelerated.
Although this is good news for job seekers in Richmond, small businesses are likely finding that hiring is still competitive and talent is still constrained.
By Dr. Chris Chmura
