Since October 1, 2025, the Federal Government has been shut down, delaying the crucial data release that decision makers in business and policy rely upon to assess growth strategies and workforce needs. Additionally, since the 2020 pandemic, response rates for surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics have been in decline, leading to large data revisions and hurting public confidence in the monthly Current Employment Statistics (CES) estimates. In an environment characterized by political and economic uncertainty, it is imperative to have access to valid, reliable, and up-to-date labor market data.
Chmura’s models for labor market data are built upon the gold-standard Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW), which reports all covered employment in the United States, but does not include self-employment, employment in religious institutions, and railroad employment. Chmura fills the gaps left by the QCEW and expands the scope to cover total employment through economic and statistical analysis of additional data sources. Additionally, Chmura releases employment estimates one quarter forward from the QCEW releases using more frequently released government data sources as well as proprietary job postings data and will release data for the second quarter within the next month.
State and National Employment – 2Q 2025
In the second quarter of 2025, total employment in the United States grew 0.83% year-over-year to 168.3 million, continuing the upward trend that began in 3Q 2020. While uncertainty has characterized the recent economic outlook, the labor market has remained solid.
Total employment grew in 49 states, with only a modest decline of 0.07% in Iowa. Employment also declined 1.03% in the District of Columbia as cuts to the federal government continued to make an impact. In ten states, employment grew 1% or more year-over-year, signaling a robust labor market even as uncertainty remains endemic to the economy.
New York experienced the largest year-over-year increase, growing 2.08%. South Carolina also experienced robust growth at 1.83% year-over-year. Utah, Hawaii, Idaho, Texas, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, and New Jersey all also grew 1% or more year-over-year.
The District of Columbia (-1.03%) and Iowa (-0.07%) were the only states and federal districts that shrunk between 2Q 2024 and 2Q 2025. Massachusetts remained relatively stagnant, growing only 0.03% from a year ago. Oregon (0.21%) and West Virginia (0.30%) also experienced low growth over the past year.
Despite the Federal Government shutdown, Chmura will still provide the regular quarterly data update for 2Q 2025. All inputs into Chmura’s models were released prior to the recent shutdown, most notably, the 1Q 2025 QCEW was released on September 9, 2025, three weeks before the shutdown began.
